Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,825$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,735.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(69,735.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,906$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(117.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,721.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,721.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,364$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $498,989$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(9.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{498,473.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 109.3)}}\) (asimptote \(498,473.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,418$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(134.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,138.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,138.4\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $319,195$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $346,513$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(9.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{306,401.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(306,401.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,638$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,680.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40,680.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $303,069$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $276,338$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245,025.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(245,025.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,534$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(118.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,707.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,707.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,194$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $84,985$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,800.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.3)}}\) (asimptote \(85,800.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,835$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,722.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,722.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,150$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $347,267$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(7.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{237,975.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(237,975.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,730$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,737.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,737.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $228,610$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $76,907$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,612.7}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(58,612.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,275$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,123.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,123.3\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $69,078$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $29,534$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,119.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(26,119.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,777$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(683 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,735.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,735.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,393$ on 2020-09-05