Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $87,825$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,735.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(69,735.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,906$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(117.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,721.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,721.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,364$ on 2020-09-05

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $498,989$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(9.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{498,473.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 109.3)}}\) (asimptote \(498,473.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,418$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(134.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,138.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28,138.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $319,195$ on 2020-09-05

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $346,513$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(9.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{306,401.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(306,401.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,638$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,680.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40,680.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $303,069$ on 2020-09-05

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $276,338$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245,025.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(245,025.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,534$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(118.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,707.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(34,707.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,194$ on 2020-09-05

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,985$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,800.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.3)}}\) (asimptote \(85,800.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,835$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,722.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,722.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79,150$ on 2020-09-05

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $347,267$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(7.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{237,975.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(237,975.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,730$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,737.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,737.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $228,610$ on 2020-09-05

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $76,907$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,612.7}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(58,612.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,275$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,123.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,123.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $69,078$ on 2020-09-05

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,534$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,119.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(26,119.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,777$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(683 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,735.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,735.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,393$ on 2020-09-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Belarus recovered 100%
Iceland recovered 92%
Germany recovered 75%
Armenia recovered 68%
North Macedonia recovered 47%
Malta recovered 43%
Russia recovered 33%
Albania recovered 5%

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $72,663$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,414.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 73.5)}}\) (asimptote \(69,414.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $705$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(102 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{721.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 86.0)}}\) (asimptote \(721.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $115$ on 2020-09-05

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,136$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.02 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,870.2}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,870.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $88$ on 2020-09-05

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $251,058$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(8.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(109.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{206,148.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(206,148.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,329$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(116.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,015.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,015.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,159$ on 2020-09-05

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,649$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,443.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 105.7)}}\) (asimptote \(44,443.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $895$ on 2020-09-05

Best fit exponential: \(72.2 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{902.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 98.4)}}\) (asimptote \(902.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,931$ on 2020-09-05